Now that every team has played at least ten games, I thought now would be a good time to predict the winners of every major award the NFL gives out. My projected winners for Assistant Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie and Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Most Valuable Player are all below.
I also listed a few more players in each category that, even if I don’t think they’ll win the whole thing, deserve some consideration. I also decided to include a dark horse candidate for each award. These players are almost certainly not winning (they all have at least +10000 odds to win, as of time of writing), but they all could greatly improve their standing and have potential to even garner some long-shot hype to win the thing if they impress over the back-half of the season.
ASSISTANT COACH OF THE YEAR
As far as I can tell, Assistant Coach of the Year is the newest award the NFL hands out that actually means anything at all (Unless somebody out there is really into the “Land o’ Lakes Buttery Smooth Route-Runner award, I guess). As such, there isn’t much precedence that can points us towards who one might expect to win the award, and as far as I can tell, odds aren’t even offered on who might win. That’s probably for the best, because anybody who is placing meaningful money on the Assistant Coach of the Year Award needs to find a new hobby, but I digress.
Since I don’t really have a framework to go off of for this one, I’ll have to shoot from the hip a bit here. Even so, I think I’ve narrowed my list down to three people; Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores, and Frank Smith.
To give you the low-down, Jim Schwartz is the Browns defensive coordinator, Brian Flores is the Vikings defensive coordinator, and Frank Smith is the Dolphins offensive coordinator.
You may already know Schwartz or Flores. Both have been head coaches who didn’t quite hack it, and have found success in their new positions as a coordinator. Smith, however, is a bit more incognito than the others. While Mike McDaniel has, rightfully, covered himself in glory after revolutionizing the Dolphins defense into the new hotness of the league, Smith has been the behind-the-scenes mastermind. His prior experience as a run-game coordinator, offensive line coach, and tight ends coach is immediately present in how the Dolphins offense functions. They are one of the best run-blocking teams in the league (5th by run-block win rate, per ESPN) and have earned an average of 5.9 yards per rush this season, easily the best in pro football. The Dolphins must be counting their lucky stars every day that Smith isn’t a more widely-known commodity, but that won’t last forever. Look for him to be sought after once head coaches start getting fired early next year.
- My Winner: Frank Smith, Miami Dolphins
- Also Worth Noting: Jim Schwartz, Cleveland Browns; Brian Flores, Minnesota Vikings; Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City Chiefs
- Worthy Dark Horse: Eric Bieniemy, Washington Commanders
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
There’s a whole slew of rookie game-changers this season, and a good handful of them all have a shot.
The odds-on favorite right now is Eagles lineman Jalen Carter. Carter’s talent was never in doubt, but some off-the-field nastiness kept him from being one of the very first picks in the Draft. The ability we all knew was there has blossomed on the Eagles, and he is already becoming one of the most disruptive interior defensive lineman in football. I don’t love PFF, but I find that their grades can be useful in giving you a general idea of how well a player has performed. They have him graded out as a 90.6 on a scale that goes from 0-100, placing him in the “elite” category. You can make reasonable arguments that he might be better than almost anybody else at his position, and he is less than a dozen games into his career.
My choice, which might be a bit contrarian, is Will Anderson Jr. I’ve already gone into just how effective he’s been for the Texans this year in my most recent post. My choosing of Anderson isn’t just to spice things up, however; there is recent precedence for such a selection. The DROTY award seems to place more value on certain positions. Interior defensive linemen had their heyday in this category back in the early 2010’s when Ndamukong Suh, Sheldon Richardson, and Aaron Donald all won in a five-year stretch, but since then it’s been mostly edge rushers. The most likely edge rusher to win, by current betting odds, is Anderson. Not to mention, with Houston on the up-and-up, people are about to really buy into the Texans hype train. Perhaps all those warm, fuzzy vibes can catapult him into winning the award.
- My Winner: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
- Also Worth Noting: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles; Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks; Brian Branch, Detroit Lions
- Worthy Dark Horse: Ivan Pace Jr., Minnesota Vikings
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Let’s not beat around the bush here, it’s CJ Stroud.
Outside of an enormous dip in his level of play or a serious injury happening soon, the Texans quarterback is the heavy favorite to walk away with this one. Vegas seems to agree, currently placing -1600 odds on him to win. For those unaware, odds of -1600 means that in order to profit $100 off your pick, you would need to wager $1600. In other words, if you want to win any notable amount of money on Stroud winning this award, the buy-in is sizable. You don’t even need to read the writing on the wall to know he’s running away with this category.
If somebody were to challenge him for it, you could throw Puka Nacua into the ring. After a red-hot start to the season, Nacua is cooling off, having 3 games of 43 or less receiving yards in his last 5 contests. What might keep him out of long-shot territory, however, are games like his 154-yard effort against the Steelers in that aforementioned stretch of games. If he can somehow get back on pace to challenge that rookie receiving record, Nacua has a shot to give Stroud a little less leeway for this honor.
- My Winner: CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
- Also Worth Noting: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams; Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions; Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings; Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (if Arthur Smith is fired)
- Worthy Dark Horse: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
COACH OF THE YEAR
We can make this a bit easier on ourselves by acknowledging one simple truth about the Coach of the Year award, and that truth is this: no matter how well you do, you can’t win this award if your team misses the playoffs. If you want to find an exception to the rule, you have to go back to 1990, when Jimmy Johnson won the award for turning the Cowboys from a miserable 1-15 squad in 1989 into a respectable 7-9 team the year after. This means we should probably pick a coach whose team is almost certain to make the postseason.
The Detroit Lions are one such team. Detroit has a 2.5 game lead over the streaking Vikings in the NFC North, and are only a half a game behind the conference-leading Eagles. Even if they do manage to choke away their first ever NFC North title (yes, seriously, the last time Detroit won their division they played in the NFC Central), they are well-placed to easily snag a Wild Card spot.
Looking at the Lions of the last two years, you might think that they look like the save file of a Madden player who turned the difficulty down too far in Franchise Mode. After starting 1-6 in 2022, Detroit has won 16 of their last 20 games. Dan Campbell’s hiring almost perfectly correlates with Detroit’s sudden turnaround from league laughing stock to serious postseason contender. Their slow start might have been the reason he didn’t get the prize last season, but Coach of the Year is his for the taking this time around.
- My Winner: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
- Also Worth Noting: Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans; Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins; Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Worthy Dark Horse: Sean Payton, Denver Broncos
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
If you had made me guess what the Comeback Player of the Year odds looked like before I looked them up, I would have assumed Damar Hamlin was far-and-away the favorite, and I would have been wrong. Sure, he’s still leading the pack, but others are right on his proverbial heels. Tua has been keeping relatively close all season, and after breathing new life into the Vikings offense after Kirk Cousins’ season ended, Josh Dobbs has inserted himself into the contest.
This was a shock to me. Surely a man returning to professional football less than 12 months after nearly dying on the field is a much more notable comeback than Tua having a good season after being concussed a few times, right? The season Josh Dobbs is having is remarkable, but he wasn’t even hurt previously, he just didn’t play very much until being thrown into a playoff game because of Ryan Tannehill’s untimely injury. Of course, a similar tale winning this distinction isn’t without precedent; Geno Smith winning it last year can bear some proof to that.
Of all the NFL awards, CPOTY is the most narrative-driven, and there isn’t one that comes close to being as awe-inspiring as Hamlin’s return to the sport that he almost died playing. Sure, he hardly plays for Buffalo, but the fact that he plays at all is what’s notable here.
- My Winner: Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills
- Also Worth Noting (apparently): Josh Dobbs, Tennessee Titans; Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens; Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins; Breece Hall, New York Jets
- Worthy Dark Horse: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
As far as Vegas oddsmakers are concerned, this has come down to a three-horse race. Myles Garrett, the Browns edge rusher whose physique makes a GI Joe action figure look emaciated by comparison, is the current odds-on favorite. The only two who are any bit close as far as bookkeepers are concerned is Dallas’s Micah Parsons and Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt.
Edge rusher is the “cool” position on defense right now, and the spotlight shines on such players accordingly. Quarterback is the most important position in the sport, and as such, those whose primary job is to disrupt them will be seen as particularly valuable, and therefore more likely to win such high-level awards such as this. As such, I can’t really make an argument to put anybody else in this top-level group. They’re the best players at the most visible position on defense, so who else really has a shot here? And among these three, Myles Garrett is, for my money, the very best. It’s about time Garrett finally brings this one home after being in the conversation so many times and never winning it.
- My Projected Winner: Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
- Also Worth Noting: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh; Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
- Worthy Dark Horse: Roquan Smith, Baltimore Ravens
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Offensive Player of the Year has taken on a new identity in recent years. From 2000 to 2018, running backs took home the title 10 times, quarterbacks won 9, and every other position has gone home empty-handed. It had become especially passer-favored since 2010, with 6 of the 9 winners from then to 2018 being quarterbacks.
Suddenly, as if the NFL forgot they were eligible for the award and needed to make up for their forgetfulness, wide receivers have been on a hot streak. Since 2019, 3 of the last 4 winners of the OPOY have been wide receivers. The trend seems likely to continue.
When I think about worthy candidates for OPOY this season, two names are the first to jump to my mind, Philly’s AJ Brown and Miami’s Tyreek Hill. Each of them are the most dangerous pieces in some of the most powerful offenses in football, and are putting up the gaudy numbers to prove it. The oddsmakers are on my side here, as Hill and Brown are currently 1st and 3rd in betting odds, with Christian McCaffrey splitting the difference at 2nd. In fact, the odds of a quarterback winning this one are just practically distant; Jalen Hurts is the farthest up the list at 6th with +4000 odds. In an era where offenses are as pass-happy as ever, are voters finally trying to recognize the importance of those on the other end of the process? Or were decision makers sick of this award just being “the 2nd best quarterback” award more often than not? Either way, pass catchers are the beneficiaries of this new-look OPOY, and I’ll put down AJ Brown, who will have the 2nd most receiving yards in football after their game tonight despite being only the 14th-most targeted receiver in the league, as my winner.
- My Winner: AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
- Also Worth Noting: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins; Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers; Ceedee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
- Worthy Dark Horse: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
For as much of a non-QB award OPOY is this season, MVP is almost exclusively for quarterbacks. Since Lawrence Taylor won the award in 1986, only running backs and passers have taken home the most prestigious individual award in the sport, and from 2013 onwards, it’s been exclusively quarterbacks. History seems bound to repeat himself again this season.
For a non-QB to win MVP in this day in age, they’d need to do something truly extraordinary and be the authors of an unprecedented season. Adrian Peterson, the running back who won MVP in 2012, defied all prior conventions by very nearly breaking the single-season rushing record after tearing his ACL the season before. No wide receiver has even won it. No, not even prime Jerry Rice or Calvin Johnson’s 1,900+ yard season was enough to pry MVP from the hands of a quarterback. While there’s players having some great seasons, there isn’t anybody having a truly legendary one, so we can safely assume that history will be an adequate teacher for us in regards to what MVP voting might look like.
So, it’ll be a quarterback, big deal. Which quarterback? First up to bat is Ol’ Reliable, Patrick Mahomes. As long as he is healthy and still employed by an NFL franchise, I expect Patrick Mahomes earning some MVP hype will be a yearly tradition. Even with a wide receiver cast that lacks any kind of juice, the Chiefs are still one of the best offenses in football, and Mahomes is the most crucial reason why. Jalen Hurts is the superstar quarterback of the team with the best record in the league, and therefore is also one of the foremost candidates for MVP. Even CJ Stroud, the aforementioned Texans upstart QB, has favorable odds. These are all good options, but I personally am all aboard the Lamar hype train.
To win MVP, you need to be an outstanding player (and preferably a quarterback, as previously discussed) on a very good team. He’s certainly got the “very good team” part under control. The Ravens currently have the 2nd seed in the AFC, but if the Chiefs fall to the Eagles tonight, they will be all alone in first place as the only team in the conference with 8 wins on the season. In their final six games, I imagine Baltimore will be favored to win in at least five of them, with San Francisco being the only matchup where they are likely to be the underdogs. If their remaining schedule goes like chalk and they win every game they are expected to, they’ll end the season with a 13-4 record, very possibly good enough to claim the #1 spot in the AFC.
As for the outstanding player part, there’s no question. He’s the maestro of an offense that is 4th in offensive DVOA despite working with a cast of talent that has 31 year-old OBJ as the WR2 and a rookie (however good Zay Flowers might become, he is a rookie) as WR1. He’s also easily the most effective runner on an offense that averages the most running yards per game in the entire league. Hell, he might just be their best option at wide receiver if he started lining up out wide. To be putting up the fifth-most points per game while needing to regularly rely on the likes of Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman, while the other top-tier scoring offenses can lean on the like of Ceedee Lamb or Tyreek Hill, lends credence to how valuable Jackson is, and how utterly crucial he is to the enormous success the Ravens have enjoyed this season. If even a mediocre quarterback was taking snaps for the Ravens, would they be the favorites to win the strongest division in football? Would the #1 seed and all its corresponding advantages be a possibility, let alone a likely outcome, for Baltimore? I say it wouldn’t be, and if that doesn’t make Lamar Jackson enormously valuable, what does the word even mean?
- My Winner: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Also Worth Noting: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles; Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs; Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
- Worthy Dark Horse: Ceedee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
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