IT’S A SHAME THE PANTHERS AREN’T ANY GOOD, BUT THEY AREN’T EVEN ANY FUN
Very early into the preseason, so early that one could argue that it was still just the “late postseason” phase of the NFL calendar, I was so into the Panthers this season. The defense has spunky, talented players at all three levels, and sure, the offense might be short on playmakers in this new, McCaffrey-less era, but we’ve seen several times in only the last few years how quickly adding a superstar rookie quarterback can turn the tides of a floundering offense. They only missed the playoffs by one game last season, and with Tom Brady now out of the division, why couldn’t they be the ones to step into the power vacuum? Hell, if Bryce Young, the profusely talented Alabama product, can be better for the franchise that the merry-go-round of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and PJ Walker, it probably should be them.
Then, I took a look at their actual schedule.
I took the liberty of trying to predict every one of the 272 games of the 2023 regular season about a month ago, and even though I only got through the first half of the season before, you know, the season started, it was enough time for a grim picture to be painted. After the dust had settled and the first nine weeks of their season was over, my oft-hyped Panthers sat at a sad 2-6. I fear I may have been right.
After a deflating loss to a Vikings team in a similarly desperate state, the Panthers season is already as close to being dead in the water as one can be while there are still leaves on the trees. Their one hope of qualifying for the playoffs, winning the very soft NFC South, is already close to being out of reach, being 3 games out of first after only 4 games.
So, they’re bad. That sucks. The worst part is, they’re bad and boring. This probably doesn’t shock you, seeing as they have yet to win a game, but they have yet to lead in the fourth quarter this season. You could have turned the Panthers off after the third quarter each game this season, and wouldn’t have missed much worth seeing. They aren’t particularly explosive on offense either. They only have seven passing plays of 20 or more yards this season (tied for the 2nd fewest) and have a season long rush of 26 yards, a number 20 teams can beat. We know Bryce Young is capable of leading a high-powered offense, it’s just not happening.
DON’T LOOK NOW, BUT THE SEAHAWKS MIGHT JUST WIN THE NFC WEST
If you had asked me before the season started which division champion I was most confident in predicting, I would have said the Chiefs in the AFC West. If I had to take a second, it would have been the 49ers in the NFC West. Of course it’s far too early to say anything definitive about any of the divisions, but I’m beginning to wonder if Seattle makes the NFC West a bit more interesting than I had anticipated.
Of course, they need to take the lead in the division first, but they might do that soon. The 49ers play the Cowboys in what could be an early competitor for game of the year, then head out to play Cleveland’s robust defense before jetting to Minnesota to play the “always down but never out” Vikings. They’re too good to lost all 3 games in that stretch, but 1-2 isn’t totally unfeasible. Seattle, meanwhile, goes on a well-earned BYE after smoking the Giants on primetime, then face a flat-lining Bengals team before hosting a Cardinals squad that tries, but doesn’t quite, make up for what they lack in talent with gusto. Heading into November, Seattle ought to be 5-2 at the very worst. This, of course, all leads up to a crucial 3-week stretch in late November to mid-December where these two will play each other twice in only 17 days. If Seattle can even split these two matchups (and considering they’ve won five of their last eight against San Francisco, that seems reasonable), they’ll at least keep things interesting into January.
So, how might they win all these games? If it’ll look anything like their wins so far this season, it will be on the backs of an offense that is very, very careful with the ball. Through four games, the Seahawks are one of three teams with only one turnover on the year, with this lone error coming on a Geno Smith interception while trying to force a play on 3rd and 16. Is their passing offense explosive? Not particularly. Is the defense good? Not particularly. But, if nothing else, you can be sure they won’t shoot themselves in the foot, and more often than not, that’s enough to win games in the NFL.
IN A NORMAL SEASON, RASHAN GARY WOULD BE IN CONTENTION FOR COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
More than any of the other major awards the NFL gives out, the Comeback Player of the Year award is a narrative one, and why not? People are drawn towards a redemption arc, and a professional athlete returning from a serious injury only to once again prove themselves still worthy of the big leagues is an especially compelling tale. This year, after he stepped on the field for the first time last week, Damar Hamlin all but locked himself in as the winner of this year’s CPOTY award, and for good reason. The man very nearly died on live TV in front of a national audience, and is already back to playing professional football. Sure, he isn’t exactly an impact player for the Bills, but it doesn’t matter, nor should it. However, if such an extraordinary story hadn’t taken place, and the award might be earned by simply having a great season on the back end of a season-ending injury, Rashan Gary would be the early favorite.
Green Bay’s pass rush evaporated after Gary’s ACL tear in Week Nine last season, and he’s certainly making up for lost time. His 10 pressures are good enough to tie for 13th best. That on its own isn’t bad for a guy who missed the entire second half of last season and most of training camp. What gets lost in that, however, is how quickly he’s achieved that number. Gary has been on a clear pitch count so far, playing only 77 snaps through Week 4, a mere 26% of the snaps he possibly could have played in.
That is a notably small sample size. Nearly every single player who has more pressures on the year than Gary has played at least 70% of their teams defensive snaps, with some playing over 90%. John Franklin-Myers has the next-lowest snap count among players with more pressures than Gary at 58%, over double what Rashan has.
Let’s do some quick math. Aiden Hutchinson, who is alone on top of the pressure leaderboard with 19, has played in 237 snaps for Detroit. That is a very impressive pressure rate of 8.0%. Keep those numbers in mind for a second. Gary, as stated before, has accumulated his 10 pressures in merely 77 snaps. That’s good enough for a pressure rate of 12.9%. I don’t make this comparison to say Hutchinson’s numbers are unimpressive, because that simply isn’t true; instead, I do it to highlight what kind of havoc Gary might unleash once he’s allowed to take the training wheels off. If Gary had the exact same pressure rate he has right now, with as many snaps under his belt as Hutchinson does, he would have, if you want to round up, a mind-boggling 31 pressures. Again, Hutchinson is alone in first place with 19. That’s not just an “easily winning Defensive Player of the Year” level of play, that’s “in serious contention to win MVP” kind of play.
Of course, Gary’s absurd pressure rate is very likely in part due to the fact that he’s played so few snaps in the first place. To illustrate this point, I think it’d be safe to say that Mike White’s 100% completion percentage is likely to fall notably if he’s tasked to throw the ball for a third time this season. But, on the other hand, what if it wasn’t, and he’s primed to have an all-time great season at edge? Wouldn’t that be fun?
RAPID FIRE THOUGHTS
- While looking into turnover stats to investigate the Seahawks defense, I stumbled onto a fun fact; the Vikings lead the league in lost fumbles with seven. Only two other teams, Cleveland (with five) and Baltimore (four), have more than three on the season. They somehow still have a better turnover differential than the Raiders.
- I think Josh Allen must have taken that loss against the Jets pretty personally. Since his abysmal showing in Week One, Allen and the Bills have gone berserk, winning their next three games by an average margin of victory of 30 points. Allen has 10 total touchdowns (8 passing, two rushing) and only 1 pick in that span with a 76.6% completion percentage and an adjusted yards per attempt of over 10.
- The Packers have nothing going for them in the run game, on either side of the ball. The offensive side can be explained away with the lack of Aaron Jones and a beat-up offensive line, and I think that’s reason enough to not be too concerned about it. The defense, on the other hand, is proving to be a long term problem. Since Matt LaFleur took over the reins in Green Bay in 2019, the Packers are dead-last in defensive EPA against running plays. In other words, running the ball against Green Bay improves a team’s likelihood to score points more so than running the ball against any other team. Their closest competition is Houston, Cleveland, and Detroit, perhaps the three most incompetently run franchises for the majority of this century. Maybe another first-round pick will do the trick?
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