Here’s my third installment in the Ludicrous to Likely series, now featuring the NFL’s cash cow division, the NFC East! Good timing too, since I, a widely known watcher of college football, have draft takes and somehow managed to wrestle my thoughts onto paper in time to publish them before the big event later tonight. Entire minutes of film watching went into this one, so please appreciate it!
Anyways, a quick reminder of what these four categories mean:
Ludicrous: Not impossible, but very far-fetched. <1% odds.
Doubtful: A bit more grounded in reality, but still probably not happening. In the area of 15% odds or so.
Realistic: Even more realistic, about as likely to happen as to not happen. Approximately 50% odds.
Likely: I think there’s a good chance this happens. 75% or 80% odds.
LUDICROUS: Sam Howell receives at least one MVP vote
With Carson Wentz’s release and Taylor Heinicke signing with the Falcons, the 2022 5th-round selection for Washington has been, at least temporarily, given the keys to the Commanders offense. Even with Jacoby Brissett behind him on the roster, Howell will be the early favorite to be the starter come Week One. This isn’t just speculation on my part, head coach Ron Rivera has said so himself. Washington was very nearly in playoff contention until Week 18 last season with Wentz’s poor QB play, so quality play from the position could make or break the 2023 Commanders. At such a pivotal junction, can Sam Howell deliver them to such a level that he gets some modicum of MVP hype? It’s not impossible.
Why not?
For one, the general public has yet to catch onto how much easier it now is to garner a morsel of consideration for the award. Through 2021, MVP was decided by 50 different voters each selecting who they believed was most worthy of such lofty recognition, and whichever player got the most votes was crowned Most Valuable Player. Starting as of last season, those same 50 voters now choose which five players they think should be considered for the award, and rank them from 1st to 5th, with more or less “MVP points” being awarded to the player depending on how high or low they were ranked. Once all these votes are tallied, whichever player has the most points is awarded as the MVP.
This new format immediately created some weirdness. Justin Fields, a QB who finished 32nd in completion percentage and 26th in passing yards while playing for a team that won 3 games, managed to secure a fifth-place vote. Tua Tagovailoa, who did not play in the last three games of the season for a Dolphins team that missed the playoffs, also got a fifth-place vote. Denny Kellington, a team trainer for the Bills who was among those who were the first to treat Damar Hamlin after his on-field cardiac arrest, even got a fifth-place vote. All this to say, getting a scrap of MVP recognition is suddenly much easier than it was in years prior.
So why am I specifically calling out Howell? I think there’s reason to believe he has a breakout season in 2023. The wide receiver group isn’t very deep, but a starting grouping of Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, and Terry McLaurin could stand up to just about any in the league. The addition of Andrew Wylie to the line was yet another piece in what is now a solid-on-paper group up front. While Brian Robinson has yet to shine in the Washington backfield, him and Antonio Gibson could shine as a great 1-2 punch. Combine this with a defense that finished 2022 9th in defensive DVOA, and you just might have a recipe for a real playoff team.
One potential hiccup is that all this has to come together on the field, not just in theory. Despite having alright players mostly across the board, the offensive line was 27th in pass block win rate and 19th in run block win rate last season. Neither featured running back finished with over 4 yards per carry, and Antonio Gibson seems to be uninvolved in the franchise’s future plans after this season. While questionable production from the quarterback may be partly to blame, Terry McLaurin was the only Commander to finish last season with over 700 yards receiving (although Dotson could have if he had stayed healthy, totaling 523 in 12 games). All this to say, even if Howell shines, the team as a whole is far from being a well-assured success, especially on offense.
DOUBTFUL: The Cowboys draft Bijan Robinson
I don’t watch much college football, (sorry about lying to you like that in the intro) and as a consequence don’t like to make many claims regarding which teams should be grabbing who come Draft Day, but from what little I know, the top-tier Texas prospect could be staying in-state.
For those who have yet to be introduced to the man, Bijan Robinson is a much-discussed running back who plays for the Texas Longhorns whose enourmous talent is undeniable. His elusiveness, especially behind the line of scrimmage, is uncanny. He charges to the line like a bolt of lightning, and has the top-end speed blow past anybody once he gets to the second level. Additionally, he exhibits great balance, is patient in waiting for his blockers, and is a capable receiver on top of everything else. You can make a reasonable argument that he is the very best player, regardless of position, in the entire 2023 draft. So what’s the catch?
The issue is, Robinson is entering the NFL at a time where running backs are being valued less and less by teams every season. If Bijan were instead an equally-talented wide receiver, he’d be a no-brainer top ten pick in the Draft. Instead, he could (unlikely as it may seem), fall to the very end of the first round and possibly out of the first round entirely if the cards fall the wrong way. Robinson’s theoretical misfortune here could be to Dallas’ benefit.
With Ezekiel Elliot no longer with the Cowboys for next season, there is suddenly a job opening for a qualified running back to join Tony Pollard in the Dallas backfield. Dual backfields are what the kids would call “the meta” these days in football, and any player as gifted as Robinson would make a great running mate for any NFL backfield. Not to mention, although he’s an Arkansas alum himself, owner/de jure GM Jerry Jones is a Texas boy at heart. If he has the opportunity to grab a Longhorns star at a position of need, he may not be able to help himself.
But since I have this in my “Doubtful” category, I clearly have my reasoning for why I don’t think this is too likely. For one, running back is far from the only need the Cowboys have. With Dalton Schultz now residing cross-state in Houston, Dallas may want to bolster their tight end room in a particularly deep draft at the position. Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid would make plenty of sense if this is the route they traverse. They also need depth on the defensive line, which fortunately for Dallas, is another group extensively packed with exciting prospects this year. Calijah Kancey or Bryan Bresee would undoubtedly fit the bill. Dallas’ offensive line is also certainly not the Great Wall of Texas that it used to be, and might want to load up on tackles. Darnell Wright is occasionally sent to the Cowboys in mock drafts that I’ve seen.
To further prove this point, don’t be shocked if Robinson is snagged by another team before Dallas has any chance to take him for themselves. Since the Cowboys are picking at 26th overall, most of the league will have a chance to grab Robinson if they deem him worthy of their first round pick. With Austin Ekeler looking to move on, the Chargers may decide to replace him with Robinson. And while it hasn’t been made official yet, many expect the Bengals to cut Joe Mixon sometime this offseason. They pick after Dallas,but perhaps they’ll see it as in their best interest to move up and grab Robinson before the Cowboys have the chance to do the same. Seattle, with Rashad Penny now donning the midnight green of the Eagles, needs another playmaker at the position to compliment Kenneth Walker, and may feel that Robinson is just the man for the job.
REALISTIC: The Giants finish in last place in the NFC East
The NFC East is one of the stronger divisions in football, and largely because of the strength of its top two teams. A division is only as good as its weakest teams, in my mind at least, and in that area the NFCE may still be the best in the league.
Anybody who’s not playing Devil’s Advocate with you will argue for either Dallas or Philadelphia to take the division in 2023, and will likely have the other as coming up as a close 2nd place. This leaves the Commanders and Giants to fill out the rest of the pack. Who will go where? The first instinct most would have would be to return Washington to the basement of the NFC East, where they ended last season. After all, New York won a road playoff game against the #2 seed Vikings while the Commanders sat at home and watched. Surely the Giants are in position to be the finer team, right?
It may be wise to take a second and reconsider.
New York and Washington were hardly playing at different levels in 2022. The Commanders were certainly less than stellar, ending the season 22nd in overall DVOA, but the Giants were merely one step ahead of them, finishing at 21st overall. The similarities don’t end there either, as both teams won their games in similar ways. Both the Giants and Commanders won 5 games in 2022 where they scored under 24 points, both among the only six teams in the NFL to win at least that often while scoring so little.
The issue for the Giants is that this is a much more sustainable way for Washington to win their games. While they placed nearly identically in overall DVOA for the 2022 season, these two squads were total opposites. The Giants buttered their bread with the offense, finishing 10th in offensive DVOA, while their defense lagged behind at 29th in DVOA. On the opposite end of the coin is the Commanders, who allowed the 3rd fewest yards per game and barely over 20 points per game, but unfortunately tended to score even less often than their opponents, averaging a paltry 18.9.
If the Commanders issues on offense are as fixable as I think they may be (see the first segment of this article), that side of the ball could shape up in time to deliver them above the New York Football Giants sooner than later.
LIKELY: The Eagles will be the NFC’s 1 seed.
This is a tough claim to feel so certain about in April, but predicting who will be at the top of the conference come January is hardly more than a counting exercise.
I’m not one to bet on sports, but checking the latest betting odds can be a good way to get a lay of the land for how those in the know see the league, and the early reports are that Philly and San Francisco, the two combatants in last seasons NFC Championship, are still the cream of the crop. As of April 10th, the Eagles and Niners have playoff odds of +245 and +300, respectively. These are the two best marks in the NFC and among the top four across the whole league.
So, sure, they’re a comfortable pick to make the playoffs, but squeaking into the postseason and being the odss-on favorite to make the Super Bowl aren’t nearly the same thing. Who, then, is Philadelphia’s main threat to reigning supreme in the NFC?
The safe money is on San Francisco. An elite roster from top-to-bottom, the 49ers will be a popular pick to play in, and perhaps win, the Super Bowl. While they’d be a wise pick to win it all, there are a few issues that could keep them from the top spot. The biggest fly in the soup (if you’ll excuse the imagery), is quarterback. With Jimmy G heading west to Las Vegas, the Niners options at the position have narrowed, and by design. The San Fran front office and coaching staff have continued to imply their support for rookie sensation Brock Purdy, and he is the presumptive starter as soon as he has recovered from his UCL surgery. That seems hunky dory, but what if Purdy’s elbow takes longer than expected to heal and Trey Lance struggles in relief? What if his rebuilt elbow continues to hamper him even after he’s healthy enough to play? What if he really was just a flash in the pan, and with a whole offseason to work with, defenses figure out how to best attack the extremely relevant Mr. Irrelevant? These hiccups might only cost them a game or two, but that may be enough for home field advantage to slip out of their hands.
Who else may step up to the plate and challenge the Eagles? Inside their very own division, the Cowboys eagerly await a chance to cut their old foes down to size. If they can manage to turn the common narrative on its head and beat Philadelphia in both of their matchups, they would gain an enormous advantage in not only the division, but also in the race to secure playoff seeding. Other dark horse favorites, like Detroit or Seattle, could come out of nowhere and make a claim for the #1 spot in the conference too.
The issue is that the Eagles simply have better players at nearly every position than most teams they’ll come across. I’m a sucker for a clever statistical flick of the wrist that shows why an underdog should actually be the heavy favorite or why some dredged-up fact will be the deciding factor of a high-stakes contest, but the fact of the matter is that better players tend to beat worse players, and few teams have nearly as many good players as Philly does.
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