I had fun making a handful of predictions for the NFC South, and so I decided to do it again! Also, my Derek Carr prediction already came true, so I was excited to see if I could keep my hot streak up. It turns out, I can! Unfortunately for me, though, it happened before I had finished writing the article. Oh well, I’ll still chalk it up as a W for me.
Anyways, this one will follow the same format as the prior. Four predictions, starting at wildly unlikely and finishing at utterly plausible. A quick reminder of what these four categories actually mean:
Ludicrous: Not impossible, but very far-fetched. <1% odds.
Doubtful: A bit more grounded in reality, but still probably not happening. In the area of 15% odds or so.
Realistic: Even more realistic, about as likely to happen as to not happen. Approximately 50% odds.
Likely: I think there’s a good chance this happens. 75% or 80% odds.
Up next is the NFC North.
LUDICROUS: All four NFC North teams make the postseason
Three teams all making the postseason from the same division, as tough as it may seem to accomplish, just may start being commonplace. Such an occurrence is hardly rare, happening 7 times between the Divisional realignment in 2002 and 2020, but with the updated playoff structure, it’ll become even more likely. Evidence to support this claim has already sprung up with the NFC West and NFC East sending three representatives to the playoffs in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
…but could an entire division make the postseason?
If history is any indication, it’s extraordinarily unlikely. It’s never happened before, but it’s also crucial to understand that before the 2021 postseason, it was also impossible. Would it be totally crazy for the NFC North to be the first to blaze that trail in 2023?
The answer is yes.
Let’s break it down team-by-team. The defending champion Vikings won a series of bizarre one-possession games in 2022, which painted them as frauds in the eyes of most, a viewpoint that was given some validation after they were eliminated by a lukewarm Giants team at home in the Wild Card round. The dead weight that was the defense very likely won’t get worse come 2023, but there’s certainly no guarantee it is markedly better either. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores has a history of turning defenses around, and Minnesota fans are hopeful that he can work the same kind of magic that he did with Miami’s defense. It may not be that simple, however. A precarious cap situation could leave several important pieces of the offense on the chopping block, with former All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendrics and corner Cam Dantzler already the first to go. The Minnesota offense is simply too good to keep Minnesota out of playoff considerations, however, and they’ll likely be seen as a Wild Card contender at worst.
Detroit, however, is going to once again enter the preseason as everybody’s second-favorite team. The Lions have been slowly evolving from “lovable losers” to “might actually be good” over the past few seasons, and now they might just be ready to hatch out of their cocoons and unfurl themselves as real NFC contenders. Jared Goff is playing some of the best football of his career, the offensive line and running backs are great, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar in the making, and coach Dan Campbell is building belief in the fans, and the players themselves, that Detroit is building something special. The only issue is that the defense also has to take the field. While it did improve, the Detroit defense allowed an average of over 32 points per game across its first seven contests, a stretch in which they finished 1-6. If the defense falters again like it did for much of last season, the Lions plans to return to relevance could be delayed once again. With Aiden Hutchinson and a few more contributors to bolster the ranks on defense, however, the 2023 version of the Lions should look a lot more like the one that finished the season winning eight of their last ten games. I imagine they’ll be most people’s early favorites to win the division, and I’ll probably consider myself among them.
The issue with every team in the NFC North making the playoffs is that both the Packers and the Bears will somehow need to improve notably from the 2022 versions of themselves. Let’s discuss Chicago first.
To speak plainly for a moment; the Bears were awful in 2022. They finished dead last in defensive DVOA, averaged a paltry 130 yards per game through the air, and managed to finish a game with over 20 points only 7 times last year. Can a team that was so poor as to “earn” the first overall pick turn it around and make the playoffs in just one season? It sure can. It’s hardly a common appearance (It’s occurred a mere 9 times since the 60’s), but the quick-witted fan will remember that the Jaguars did so only a few months ago. In fact, such quick turnarounds are becoming much more common, occurring five times in the 21st century. The elephant in the room is that the Bears are not likely to actually be making that pick, but they will undoubtedly have the capital to draft one of the most sought-after prospects of the Draft, and with far more available cap space than any team in the league, will be able to truly transform the roster that won them a mere three games in 2022. It’s a long road to walk, but Chicago just might be up to it.
The Packers might also be the team that makes this whole thing fall apart. So much is still unknown about what the 2023 Packers might look like. The biggest domino that needs to fall is Aaron Rodgers, but no matter how that situation resolves, the Packers still have much to do. With considerable cap room that needs to be recovered and several free agents set to hit the market, GM Brian Gutekunst has his work cut out for him. Do you run it back one more time and bring back your grizzled vets like Randall Cobb and Marcedes Lewis? Reworking David Bakhtiari’s contract may signal that this road is still on the table. Or, an option that becomes much more likely if A-Rod leaves town, do you start fresh? I of course can’t say for sure, but I imagine that GM Brian Gutekunst is leaning towards the latter. Disaster can strike any time you hit the reset button, and even Tiffany brands like Green Bay aren’t immune from the possibility of a rock-bottom season. Who’s to say that Jordan Love isn’t as ready to step into the limelight as many thought? Perhaps the defense still doesn’t live up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon it before the start of last season. The offensive line is at a turning point, and it’s not impossible that it might make a turn for the worst.
So sure, plenty could go right for every team in the NFCN. You can make a reasonable argument (some more reasonable than others) that any given team in the division can make the postseason. But all of them? I wouldn’t hold my breath.
DOUBTFUL: The Chicago Bears trade Justin Fields
Bears fans scoff at the idea, and understandably so, but there is a world in which Chicago deals their former first-round pick this offseason. Why would the Bears, the franchise historically most detached from quality quarterback play, be so interested in moving on from Fields, who may well be the best quarterback the team has ever had?
For one, Ryan Poles, the Bears GM, has no attachment to the pick, as he was taken by his predecessor, Ryan Pace. In this pass-happy league, you need to be able to rely upon your quarterback to be able to reliably move the ball through the air if you want your offense to be anywhere close to competitive. For all the good you can say about him, why would Poles be certain Justin can do that? Poles wants to make his mark in the extensive history of Windy City sports, and, for good or for bad, trading Fields will accomplish just that.
If you have the slightest interest in the Draft, you know that the Bears currently have possession of the #1 overall pick this coming April. Most assume that they’ll trade it in return for an enormous haul to some team desperate to pick a quarterback, but let’s imagine that they don’t for a moment. If the team slated to make the first selection in the draft were to need a quarterback (like the Bears would if they no longer have Fields on the roster), draftniks say they’d likely have their sights set on Alabama’s Bryce Young. In a situation where the Bears trade Fields away and take Young with the top overall pick, they could have the best of both worlds; a shiny new batch of picks to bolster their rebuilding roster and a young quarterback to be excited about. It’s an audacious move, but it just might work.
The other reason such a move might be considered by the Chicago brass is that Fields would foster an incredible amount of interest from other teams. Fields’ electric athletic ability would tempt offensive play callers the league over, and with this year’s batch of free agent quarterbacks looking particularly sparse (now featuring an old Aaron Rodgers as the only seemingly available starter), the Bears would be inundated with offers from QB-needy teams. If word were to get out that Fields’ services were up for sale, who’s to say that they don’t get an offer that’s simply too good to refuse?
So, why wouldn’t the Bears make such a trade? The obvious answer is that the Bears like what they see in Fields. He’s already one of the best running quarterbacks to grace the NFL, and with a ridiculous $100M+ in cap space to work with this spring and summer, they have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build around their budding star. If they have any belief Fields can take this franchise to the promised land, they won’t move on from him, at least not now.
The simple fact of the matter is, they don’t need to trade away any players at all to secure a king’s ransom of draft picks. Like previously stated, the most anticipated course of action for Chicago over the coming months is to move off of the #1 pick, and shop around for whoever is willing to offer them the most for it. Odds are, somebody who fell in love with Bryce Young or CJ Stroud at the combine will offer the Bears some exorbitant amount to swap first round picks with them, and the Bears will happily accept. They can then use that newly-acquired pick to draft one of the several blue-chip prospects on defense, of which there are several. As we discussed before, they certainly need the help.
Sometimes the most obvious way forward is obvious for a reason.
REALISTIC: Green Bay still won’t draft a wide receiver in the first round
In the first segment of this writeup, it was discussed that there is plenty that still needs to be decided this offseason in the Frozen Tundra. No matter what other decisions are made, however, I don’t find it too likely the Packers grab a wide receiver in the first round.
While to somebody who consumes most of their football analysis through NFL meme accounts might see this as malpractice on behalf of the Green Bay front office, there are much more pressing concerns on the roster. Christian Watson’s emergence over the back half of the season and their hope that Romeo Doubs will develop into a key part of the offense with time has helped to alleviate concern regarding the Packers depth at the position. Their good fortune in the last draft means they can turn an eye to other positions, such as safety. Brian Branch, the versatile cornerback/safety from Alabama, is an oft-mocked Packers selection at 15th overall. Outside of one outlier year from Bob Tonyan, Green Bay has been wanting for production from their tight ends for a while, and Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer or Utah’s Dalton Kincaid could be just what the doctor ordered. With Rashan Gary potentially missing notable time next season while he recovers from an ACL tear, Green Bay needs depth and instant production at edge. Iowa product Lukas Van Ness could be the solution. Suffice to say, there are multitudes of options for the Pack come April 27th.
Outside of the fact that other holes need patching, Green Bay prefers to spend their high-round picks on prospects who, above all else, are extremely athletic for their position. While “athleticism” is a hard concept to quantify, RAS, or “Relative Athletic Score,” is a measure that does its best. RAS gives every player who completes the physical tests at events like the Combine a score from 0 to 10 based on their results, relative to other players at their position. A player with a high RAS is, overall, more “athletic” than a player of the same position with a lower score.
In the 2022 Draft, the first four players the Packers drafted, and five of the first six, all scored a 9.3 or higher. Since Brian Gutekunst took over as GM for Green Bay with the 2018 draft, they’ve only taken two players with a score lower than 9.0 in the first round. Keeping this in mind, there may only be two feasible options for the Packers that both fall into this RAS threshold and are reasonable selections early in the first round: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jalin Hyatt. Having only a few players that fit the Packers framework for the position, they may simply take a swing at a pass catcher later in the draft.
Despite all the above reasoning, I still wouldn’t be shocked if Green Bay grabs a receiver anyways. If Aaron Rodgers is traded (any day now, surely…), a first round pick in this coming draft is likely headed back to Green Bay. With two picks in the top half of the draft, the Packers suddenly can grab a wideout without also derailing their plans to fix a more pressing need. Furthermore, if Rodgers is traded away and Jordan Love is set to take over, immediately surrounding him with a full stable of skill players will make his promotion as smooth as possible. Think of it like a housewarming gift for Love moving permanently into the QB1 spot on the roster.
LIKELY: The Vikings cut Adam Thielen
(AUTHORS NOTE: I had already written this part by the time Thielen was released this morning, I promise. This is what I get for trying to be topical, huh?)
Adam Thielen has become a legend in Vikings lore. The local, small-school kid that very nearly became a dental equipment salesman after college instead made the most of his opportunity to join the most prestigious league in American sports, and created an incredible career for himself. At his height, he and Stefon Diggs were among the best WR duos in the NFL. My research into whether or not the Vikings have a team Hall of Fame is inconclusive, but if they do, he’s a lock to join it some day. I’m a Packers fan, but I’m also a man named Adam before that, and I’m proud to share my first name with him.
With all that being said, his time with the Vikings might come to an end shortly. The Vikings aren’t exactly in dire straits with regards to their cap, but the contracts of some of their more, shall we say, “seasoned” players are also the most expensive, and they’ll need to part ways with some who have been franchise cornerstones for the better part of a decade this spring. They’ve already begun, and Thielen is likely to eventually be among them.
Most important to consider here is his cap hit. Thielen is scheduled to count a hair under $20M against Minnesota’s cap in 2023. This makes him the second most expensive player on the roster behind only Kirk Cousins. Cutting him prior to June 1st would save the Vikings over $13.5M, vastly cutting down on their $15.7M deficit. Nearly erasing your entire cap issue with one fell swoop would be an enormous relief to the Vikings front office.
That’s not all, of course. Thielen is very old for a receiver. He’ll be 33 by season’s start. There were 7 wide receivers that were 33 years old for either all or part of the 2022 season, and they combined for merely 844 yards, and only 4 of them had over 100. Sure, Thielen has been productive into his early 30’s, but almost always, Father Time comes calling for wideouts before they turn 34. With the free agent wide receiver cupboard being so especially bare, he’d be foolish to take a team friendly deal to stay on with the Vikes. There’s only one way out if the Vikings do decide to move on.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the Vikings GM, has been sold as a numbers-don’t-lie, analysis-forward kind of fellow. If he is as willing to make whatever move he believes best serves the team without caring what others might have to think about convention (trading with two different divisional rivals in last year’s draft seems to imply this is, in fact, the case), he certainly sees the upside in such a move. There are younger, cheaper, and equally capable players behind him on the depth chart, and I’m sure the coaching staff wants to get them on the field.
While I do think that such a move is quite likely, there are other ways the Vikings may look to seek cap relief. Maybe Harrison Smith, another one of the Vikings old and expensive players, will go on the chopping block in Thielen’s stead? Maybe he does decide to take a hometown discount, however, and looking to keep a franchise favorite in town to help round out a relatively young receiver core, Adofo-Mensah agrees. It’s easier and cleaner to just move on though, and I’m sure the Minnesota brass will see it similarly.
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