The Super Bowl may have just bookmarked the end of an eventful 2023 season, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to start making predictions about next season! I wanted to make things a bit more interesting than your typical “NFL Predictions” however, and as such decided to make a series of pieces called “Ludicrous to Likely.” The idea is that in each piece, I will make four predictions about a certain division, with each proclamation being more likely than the last. These predictions will always fall into the same four categories every time, which are “Ludicrous,” “Doubtful,” “Realistic,” and “Likely.”
A quick descriptor of what these four categories actually mean:
Ludicrous: Not impossible, but very far-fetched. Somewhere around 1% odds.
Doubtful: A bit more grounded in reality, but still probably not happening. In the area of 15% odds or so.
Realistic: Even more realistic, about as likely to happen as to not happen. Approximately 50% odds.
Likely: I think there’s a good chance this happens. 75% or 80% odds.
Up first is the NFC South.
LUDICROUS: The Panthers end the 2023 – 2024 season as the best defense in the NFL
We’re starting out hot.
The Panthers recently hired Ejiro Evero, who spent 2022 as the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos, to the same position in Carolina. Though he had originally come to Carolina to interview for the head coach spot that was snapped up by Frank Reich, mutual interest between the parties was obviously present, and he was brought on board after Sean Payton cleared house in Denver.
Evero’s Broncos were home to one of the very best defenses in the NFL despite being weighed down by a lethargic offense. Can he do equally impressive work with the Panthers? It could happen. Brian Burns is a freak athlete, Derrick Brown is finally emerging, Frankie Luvu is a wildly-underrated jack of all trades, and a secondary composed of Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn, and Xavier Woods is certainly clay worth molding. With three picks in the first two rounds, including the 9th overall pick, they are also in prime position to bolster their ranks even farther.
To add a cherry on top, the Panthers reside in the NFC South, which now suddenly finds itself Tom Brady-less and filled with teams that don’t have a clear plan at quarterback. The Carolina defense very well may have a chance to pad its stats with 6 divisional games against weak passing offenses.
So, why do I find it so unlikely the Panthers will have a peerless defense next year? The simple matter of fact is they have a long way to go. By most statistical measures, Carolina was soundly mediocre on defense in 2022, finishing 22nd in total yardage allowed and 19th in points allowed. Will they improve in 2023? Most assuredly. Will they be better than the likes of Buffalo, San Francisco, or Philadelphia? I’d be shocked.
DOUBTFUL: The Saints deal Alvin Kamara
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Saints once again find themselves in a bad way in regards to their cap space. As of this moment, they need to find north of $60 million in cap relief between now and the new season. One possible solution to this issue would be to unload a few of their heavier contracts, among which we find Alvin Kamara.
The most obvious reason for the Saints to dish Kamara is the aforementioned financial conundrum New Orleans once again finds itself in. More importantly, however, is the fact that there’s very likely an active market for the man could incentivize the Saints to sell him to the highest bidder. Perhaps the Bengals, who very well may move on from Joe Mixon this offseason, will have an appetite for the back. Maybe Sean Payton will decide he wants Kamara, who was often the focal point of his offenses with the Saints, to join him in the Mile-High city.
There’s more reasons Kamara stays in place, however. For one, Kamara still has that assault charge hanging over his head from last season’s Pro Bowl. While there’s certainly a notable precedent of teams trading for players with very public legal cases against them, the uncertainty of the situation might keep teams at bay.
Furthermore, the dead cap hit must be considered. Trading Kamara before June 1st will leave the Saints with over $14 million in dead money for 2023 alone. With every dollar counting, such a move might not make the most sense for NOLA, especially since they have a history of simply pushing unwieldy contracts farther down the line.
To add on yet another reason the Saint’s superstar running back likely stays in place is that New Orleans now has a much better chance to make the postseason with their current roster than they did merely a few weeks ago. With Tom Brady out of the picture, the NFC South is truly up for grabs. If the front office thinks they have a group that can contend to host a playoff game, why start selling key parts like Kamara?
REALISTIC: Derek Carr signs with a team in the NFC South
This might not be as bold of a claim as it was before news broke that Carr had met with the Saints, but the logic behind such a move was always pretty clear.
Carr’s time with the Raiders is now officially over, and the NFC South seems, by numbers alone, to be a likely landing spot for the veteran passer. As I said earlier, all four teams in the division have questions at the position, and it’s entirely possible (depending on the play of Desmond Ridder) that none of them have their franchise quarterback.
So, why not Carr? He’s no superstar, and with him refusing to waive his no-trade clause with the Raiders, he will hit the market as a free agent, and therefore immediately becomes more appealing cash-strapped prospective teams like the Saints and Bucs.
While a veteran starter like Carr can cost a pretty penny, there’s certainly pitches to be made by each of the teams that reside in the South that could draw in a guy looking for redemption just like him.
The Panthers have an up-and-coming defense, some great wide receivers, and can supplement them even more with the 9th pick in this upcoming draft. The Falcons also have a well-stocked group of skill players on the offense, an extremely well-coached offensive line, and the 8th pick in the draft. The Saints also have talented skill players at every level and one of the better defenses in the conference. The Buccaneers, of course, have had much more success than their divisional co-habitants recently and are a win-now roster in need of a quarterback to lead the whole thing.
The things that make this only about coin-flip odds in my mind, however, are numerous. For one, Derek Carr would be an upgrade for many quarterback rooms around the league that aren’t in the NFC South, and he very well may decide to sell his services to one of them. The Colts and the Jets are merely two such teams that realistically may count Carr amongst their players come the Fall.
Further complicating matters is that the Saints and the Buccaneers are the two teams with the least available cap space in the NFL. Again, Carr may be willing to take a pay cut if he feels the situation is a beneficial one overall, but if the market says that he’s worth much more than either of those two teams is willing or able to afford, the list of teams within the division that can realistically count themselves among his suitors gets cut in half.
LIKELY: The Buccaneers don’t win the NFC South in 2023
The counterargument to this assertion is that the Bucs, on paper, have the best roster in the division. I’m not so sure that it stays that way for much longer.
For one, I believe Tom Brady’s retirement is only the start of what will become a talent exodus this offseason. To begin, Julio Jones’ 1-year contract is up, and he very well may retire. Fellow pending free agents that are key defensive contributors include Jamel Dean, Lavonte David, William Gholston, and Rakeem Nunez-Roches. While they’re all still under contract, such players as Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate, or Donovan Smith could all be cap casualties. No matter how things come together, the Tampa Bay roster will not look quite like the one that has won the last two divisional titles.
While anybody could have told you that Tom Brady’s retirement will hurt the Bucs, many don’t realize how truly pivotal he was to the functionality of Tampa’s offense. Brady’s 733 pass attempts in 2022 were the most by any player in a single season in the history of the league. It will come as no surprise to you, then, to hear that the Buccaneers were the most pass-happy team in the league, throwing the ball on over 66% of their offensive snaps, nearly 3% more than the next most airborne offense.
Brady’s departure leaves two options for Tampa. They can either a) totally revamp their offense and become more run-dependent despite likely losing starting linemen and running backs, or b) trust Kyle Trask (a second-year player with 3 career completions) or a newcomer to the system to be relied upon to pass at record-setting levels. Neither of those sound quite like a recipe for success to me. The rest of the division may be in such bad spots that they can’t compete with a patchwork Bucs roster, but I think Tampa’s time at the helm of the division may have come to a sudden end.
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