Revisiting my 2022 Season Predictions: How’d I Do?

DIVISIONAL PREDICTIONS

I figured I’d take my shot at predicting how each division would look come the end of the regular season. Did I end up looking like a pigskin profit, or a football fool?

AFC NORTH: 2/4 CORRECT

1. Baltimore Ravens (Actual placement: 2nd)

This season has been bad for Raven’s fans’ hearts, but even after blowing several late leads, they still had a shot to sneak the division away from the Bengals. The injury bug bit Baltimore again, however, and Lamar Jackson’s knee injury and subsequent absence sunk the Ravens hope’s of AFC North dominance. They did make the postseason, but unless Jackson returns swiftly, their chances of making any kind of meaningful run have evaporated.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (Actual placement: 1st)

The Bengals that took the field at the start of the season were in danger of needing the Wild Card to make the postseason, but they’ve evolved into a serious threat in the AFC. The offense has rounded into shape, and the defense has evolved from “potential liability” status to a unit that can carry games on occasion. The AFC North is theirs, and the Bengals are primed to make their second straight Super Bowl appearance.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual placement: 3rd)

A second-half second wind nearly got a Steelers squad that was 3-7 late in November into the playoffs, but their early season woes were too much to overcome. If TJ Watt was healthy and could have led the defense from the front all season, maybe they would have grabbed a Wild Card spot like I thought they had the potential to back in the summer, but I suppose now we’ll never know for certain.

4. Cleveland Browns (Actual placement: 4th)

The Browns never quite found their way this season. A mediocre-at-best offense and a terrible defense sunk the valiant efforts of the offensive line and running backs. Deshaun Watson’s underwhelming showings to end the season should be concerning to the Cleveland faithful, but it’s far too early to hit the panic button on the largest guaranteed contract in league history.

AFC EAST: 4/4 CORRECT

1. Buffalo Bills (Actual placement: 1st)

Buffalo is still unquestionably one of the few elite teams in the league this season, but the AFC East actually seemed rather contentious for a bit there. Their divisional adversaries simultaneously falling apart and  securing wins over them in 4 of their last 5 games (if you don’t count their tragically shortened game against Cincinnati) put whatever doubt may have existed about Buffalo’s superiority to bed.

2. Miami Dolphins (Actual placement: 2nd)

Miami’s season somewhat mirrors Baltimore’s. While they managed to keep pace with their division’s eventual champions, the offense crumbled when it mattered most and they had to settle for a Wild Card berth. Similarly, if their starting quarterback isn’t set to play come this weekend, I don’t see their season lasting much longer. Although it likely won’t end the way Miami fans hoped, the first season of the McDaniel era was absolutely a success.

3. New England Patriots (Actual placement: 3rd)

The Patriots find themselves in what is becoming more familiar territory once again. After not missing the playoffs since 2008, the Patriots have now missed the playoffs twice in three seasons, a first for them since 2000 and 2002. For the first time since I can ever remember, concerns regarding coaching are starting to sprout regarding the Patriots. Is it so far-flung to suggest Belichick could be out the door after next season if results don’t improve?

4. New York Jets (Actual placement: 4th)

Even though it ended in disappointment, the 2022 campaign should go down as one of great optimism for Jets fans. An absurd draft class (Jets rookies very well may win both OROY and DROY) and a defense that progressed from hazardous on the eyes into the 5th best in the league by DVOA in only one season. Give New York a stud under center and Rob Salah a couple of seasons to hone his defense, and the Jets will be feisty AFC contenders.

AFC SOUTH: 2/4 CORRECT

1. Indianapolis Colts (Actual placement: 3rd)

Well, this one is embarrassing. Regression, injuries, Matt Ryan being old, and shall I say… erratic ownership have all come together to absolutely tank the Colts season. Come next September, I have to imagine Indy will once again be starting Week One with a new quarterback under center. Having the good fortune of Houston being in their division kept them out of the basement, but just barely.

2. Tennessee Titans (Actual placement: 2nd)

Tennessee seemed set to cruise to another division title after the Colts fell apart and Jacksonville struggled to get off the launch pad, but the offense flatlining down the stretch put their postseason hopes in peril before a resurgent Jacksonville team downed them for good. It surely wasn’t the way I foresaw it, but the Titans take the AFC South silver.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual placement: 1st)

I figured the Jags would be a “better but still bad” kind of squad, but they’ve come along far quicker than I thought. Trevor Lawrence evolved into the face of the franchise he was drafted to be, and while the defense is hardly incorrigible, it’s at least fun to watch. Taking the Jags from utter disaster to divisional champion has to have locked Doug Pederson in for Coach of the Year, right?

4. Houston Texans (Actual placement: 4th)

I take no joy in getting this one right. Once again, the Texans were the bottom-feeders of the NFL, existing almost entirely to give teams an opportunity to take their frustrations out on an inferior squad before returning to the rigors of better competition. Houston is a few years out from being a few years out for competing for anything meaningful. The fans deserve better.

AFC WEST: 4/4 CORRECT

1. Kansas City Chiefs (Actual placement: 1st)

Sometimes, the simplest solution is the best one. The Chiefs offense is still obscenely  talented (that Kadarius Toney pickup was sneaky intriguing), and as long as Patrick Mahomes bears any resemblance to the player he has been since his introduction to the NFL, the Chiefs will be among the league’s upper crust. Potential having to play the AFC Championship game at a yet-to-be-named neutral site instead of in the ear-splitting confines of Arrowhead Stadium could put an interesting wrinkle in the Chiefs road to the Super Bowl.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (Actual placement: 2nd)

It was certainly no cakewalk, but the Chargers have made it to the postseason for the first time in the Justin Herbert era. They still “Charger” games away too often for me to see them as too serious of postseason contenders, but they’re a franchise on its way up, and Brandon Staley kept his job secure in the meantime. The defense was merely mediocre instead of the culture-changing group it could have been (that JC Jackson trade certainly hasn’t looked great), but it was good enough for now.

3. Las Vegas Raiders (Actual placement: 3rd)

A vicious streak of blown leads sunk the Raiders season in Josh McDaniels’ debut season as head honcho in Vegas, but as expected, they were simply too talented to stay down for long. The stars on the roster have pushed the team forward to mediocrity, although a three-game skid to end the season will have their record looking worse than the team did.

4. Denver Broncos (Actual placement: 4th)

I was clearly worried about the Russell Wilson experiment in Denver, but I certainly did not see this coming. The Broncos have largely failed to keep offensive momentum. The defense was certainly better than the “good on paper” unit that I feared it could be, but it didn’t come close to mattering. Wilson’s enormous contract might hamstring the Broncos finances for years to come.

NFC NORTH: 1 /4 CORRECT

1. Green Bay Packers (Actual placement: 3rd)

Even though they didn’t quite make the playoffs, they did seem to find themselves as the season went on. The defense focused more on keeping opposing star wideouts quiet in recent weeks, and were met with positive results, allowing only 17.6 points per game in the final five matches. Perhaps more importantly, however, has been the evolution of the passing game. Christian Watson’s uncanny speed opens up a world of possibilities. However, a lengthy streak of losses at the start of the season dropped them out of any realistic chance of winning the division before November ended, and their loss to the Lions sealed their fate.

2. Minnesota Vikings (Actual placement: 1st)

What observation could I possibly make about the Vikings that hasn’t already been repeated a thousand times over? Additionally, what could I say that might not turn out to be utterly untrue only a week later? Minnesota’s season has been constituted almost entirely out of sneaky wins and blowout losses, but a far larger count of the prior has given them a playoff berth. It’s somehow equally likely in my mind that the Vikings win the Super Bowl or get flattened by the Giants in the Wild Card round.

3. Detroit Lions (Actual placement: 2nd)

Exactly as I imagined, a great offense and a horrible defense nearly killed the Lions before the halfway mark of the season, but Detroit has got hold as the weather got colder, and very nearly grabbed the #7 spot in the NFC. I’ve gotten some flack for suggesting that Detroit is going to be a force to be reckoned with sooner than not, but they’re suddenly now not the Lions of old. As Jamaal Williams just said after beating the Packers, “We the Detroit Lions! Stop playin’ with us!”

4. Chicago Bears (Actual Placement: 4th)

Well, it’s a new year, but the Bears still suck. The 2022-2023 campaign was a disaster in the Win-Loss column, but it wasn’t without its bright spots. Justin Fields has unquestionably become one of the biggest running threats of any player, let alone quarterbacks. While quite a bit hinges on Fields’ development, the exceptional play of undrafted rookie linebacker Jack Sanborn was a pleasant cherry on top. Despite hardly playing before Week 9, Sanborn’s 5 TFL is third-most on the team. The Bears also have the enormous opportunity of having the #1 pick in the draft while not needing to spend it on a quarterback.

NFC EAST: 4/4 CORRECT

1. Philadelphia Eagles (Actual placement: 1st)

Jalen Hurts went from a question mark to an exclamation point this season, and with AJ Browns arrival in town, it’s been offense on fire all season for Philly. An elite pass rush and 2-headed monster at CB has made opposing passers miserable all season, with the Eagles allowing an opposing passer rating of 82, 3rd lowest in the league. Anything other than a Super Bowl win would be underachieving for the 2022 Eagles.

2. Dallas Cowboys (Actual placement: 2nd)

Remember when Dak broke a finger in the season opener and we all figured the Cowboys were doomed? So much for that, huh? Cooper Rush was outstanding in relief, and Dak grabbed the baton out of his hand after his five game absence to lead Dallas to a 12-5 regular season. The only issue with that record is that they were 12-4 before ending their season with an unimpressive 26-6 loss against the already-eliminated Commanders. Are the Cowboys running out of gas at the worst possible moment?

3. New York Giants (Actual placement: 3rd)

The Giants offense managed to stay (relatively) healthy, and Saquon Barkley’s re-emergence as one of the preeminent backs in the NFL helped the Giants to secure a Wild Card berth in Brian Daboll’s first year as head coach. Their new play-action heavy offense has been enormously helpful for Daniel Jones. If it weren’t for the miracle that Doug Pederson was pulling off in Duval County, Daboll might just win COY.

4. Washington Commanders (Actual placement: 4th)

Coming into the season, the Giants were the team I was least interested in talking about. That distinction now lies with the Commanders. They’re not good enough to be worth watching, but not bad enough to fall into the “comedy of errors” category. They have no exciting options at quarterback. That defensive front is pretty outstanding though. I have nothing more to say on the matter.

NFC SOUTH: 1 /4 CORRECT

1. New Orleans Saints (Actual placement: 3rd)

The Saints were the anti-Vikings this season. The defense held the operation together, but an offense in need of answers at quarterback averaged less than 20 points per game. They also had no clutch factor, losing 7 one-possession games, including a stretch of four straight such losses back in October. With another year for Chris Olave to learn and improve, a new quarterback, and perhaps the offensive line improving from average to good, the Saints can actually win the division.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Actual placement: 1st)

Did I incorrectly place the Bucs within the NFC South? Yes. But was I correct in thinking that they would regress into an average team? Also yes. I don’t mean to be a total stathead here, but the numbers are concerning regarding Tom Brady’s age 45 season. His passer rating is only just above Taylor Heinickie and Jacoby Brissett, while his TD% 0f 3.4% is sandwiched between Brissett and Davis Mills. But hey, they still made the playoffs, and as long as ol’ Tommy Boy is in the race, he’s got a chance. 

3. Carolina Panthers (Actual placement: 2nd)

It was largely due to the awful division they call home, but Carolina actually managed to be playing meaningful football late into the season. I’m a PJ Walker fan, so as much as it hurts me to say, Carolina really needs to fill the hole at quarterback. Carolina is comfortably in rebuilding mode, but don’t be surprised to see them once again competition for a playoff spot come next December.

4. Atlanta Falcons (Actual placement: 4th)

The Falcons, once again, managed to win way more games than they had any right to and absolutely blew up their chances at claiming a cream-of-the-crop pick in the coming draft. Of course I’m never going to be mad at a team for winning as many games and they can, but it really took the air out of my attempts to popularize “Win Twice, Draft Bryce” as their tanking slogan. While drafting a quarterback with their 8th overall pick would be splashy, they desperately need help with the pass rush. In their last two regular seasons, the Falcons have recorded 39 sacks. Las Vegas, who has the second fewest, has 62. The Atlanta front seven might be the single most inept unit in the NFL.

NFC WEST: 0/4 CORRECT (ouch…)

1. Los Angeles Rams (Actual placement: 3rd)

My preseason thought regarding the Rams essentially boiled down to “there’s clear issues, but I trust the defending champs to get their ducks in a row.” So much for that. Stafford’s elbow injury was just as serious as some feared, OBJ and Robert Woods’ absences were unquestionably felt (especially after Kupp’s injury), and As good as Bobby Wagner was for them, Von Miller was the superior player for Buffalo. Now, Sean Mcvay’s future as an NFL coach is in question. It’s going to be a long offseason, Rams fans.

2. San Francisco 49ers (Actual placement: 1st)

So I wasn’t expecting a rookie 3rd string, 7th round quarterback to fill in for the Niners offense, go undefeated in his starts, and lead them to being one of the favorites to winning the NFC, alright? Sue me!

But in all seriousness, Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 Draft, now finds himself incredibly relevant. We know this defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl, and Purdy has more than enough tools on the offense, but can he bring them to the finish line? Fans have been eager to say that the Niners are only a quarterback away from a title for years, and now he’s got a shot to be that guy. 

3. Arizona Cardinals (Actual placement: 4th)

What a disaster for the Cards. Kliff Kingsbury, who was brought in to install an Air Raid style offense, was fired after the Cardinals averaged only a hair over 230 passing yards per game, among the fewest of any team in the league. Arizona is at the verge of enormous change. If Kingsbury, who was just signed to five-year extension in the offseason, isn’t safe from the chopping block, who is? And after stepping down after taking leave for a health concern, who will be stepping up to fill his shoes at GM? 

4. Seattle Seahawks (Actual placement: 2nd)

There’s no two ways about it, I was a major Geno Smith doubter in the preseason. Although his torrid pace flattened a bit as the regular season wound down, Smith’s wise decision making seemed as though it would lead the Seahawks to an extremely unlikely NFC West title. Even though they didn’t quite get there, and even though their season is extremely likely to end at the hands of their dreaded rivals in Santa Clara tomorrow, this is a season to be proud of, Seattle fans. As a little cherry on top, they absolutely got the better of Denver in what could very well go down as one of the most lopsided trades in recent NFL history. 

———————————————————————————————————————

So, in the end, I correctly predicted exactly where 18 different teams would finish in their divisions, good for a 56% success rate. Considering it isn’t possible to get exactly 3 of any 4 in a division correctly, getting above half required me to ace several divisions, which I will eagerly count as a win. Good job me.

THE 2022 NFL ALL-PRO TEAM

I also took a shot at predicting what the All-Pro team might look like. How’d that turn out for me? And who do I think will be on it when the list drops?

(Author’s Note: I had this part all written up before the All-Pro team was released by the NFL earlier today, I swear, I just really don’t want to rewrite the entire thing.)

OFFENSE

QB: Josh Allen, Buffalo

The honor of being the First-Team All Pro passer was most likely to come down to either Allen or Patrick Mahomes, and I seem to have gotten that coin flip wrong. The Buffalo QB has still had a good season, so I feel alright about this pick.

RB: Derrick Henry, Tennessee

Henry has had a prolific season, but his tendency to have quiet streaks combined with others at the position having bounce-back years leaves his odds to be tagged as premier amongst his peers unlikely. Look for Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, or maybe Christian McCaffrey to take this one.

WRs: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota; Stefon Diggs, Buffalo; Jaylen Waddle, Miami

Man, I was so close to acing this one. Predicting that Jefferson, Diggs, and a Miami receiver would have a big season was hardly an exercise in bold takes, but I’ll take wins where I can get ’em. I couldn’t decide whether or not to give Waddle or his superstar teammate Tyreek Hill my third spot, and while the former has certainly continued to be an effective weapon for the Dolphins, the latter has undeniably been the more important one. I can’t have anything go totally right when I make predictions though, so look for AJ Brown or Davante Adams to grab Diggs’ place.

TE: Darren Waller, Las Vegas

It was always a bit of a longshot, but this pick spectacularly backfired. Waller has missed most of the year (he didn’t play from Week 4 until Week 15) and has not been particularly involved when he does see the field, only finishing with over 50 yards receiving three times. There’s a reason that Travis Kelce was the heavy favorite here, and his spot on the most exclusive lineup in football is all but guaranteed again this year.

T: Trent Williams, San Francisco; Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay

Both Williams and Wirf will represent the NFC at the Pro Bowl, but will they stay joined at the hip when it comes time to determine the All Pro squad? For my sake I hope so, but there’s plenty of other ways it could go. Terron Armstead, Lane Johnson, and Kaleb McGary have also been spectacular, and could easily slot in. Laremy Tunsil’s valiant attempt to polish the turd that is the rest of the Miami offensive line could see him here, but his close proximity to such an awful unit may unfairly preclude him.

G: Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis; Zack Martin, Dallas

The Falcons Chris Lindstrom’s meteoric rise this season has made this a touch more complicated than expected. Zack Martin and Lindstrom have both played to a standard worthy of the All Pro team, which wouldn’t be an issue if they weren’t both right guards. Would the NFL select two right guards instead of one left and one right guard? I doubt it. Knowing that, is it lazy of me to put two RGs in as my new, updated prediction? Yes. Will that stop me from doing it anyways? Absolutely not.

Quenton Nelson has been… fine, I guess. He’s still one of the better LGs in the league, but he hasn’t quite reached the lofty standards his elite play created right out of college. I suppose he could make it purely out of voter apathy, but it’s a longshot.

C: Corey Linsley, Los Angeles Chargers

Linsley has been a bedrock presence for a much improved Chargers front five, but Jason Kelce has been otherworldly for the Eagles and will most likely join his brother on the All Pro selection. Kelce’s imminent retirement probably also helps his cause.

DEFENSE

EDGE: Myles Garrett, Cleveland; Nick Bosa, San Francisco

Edge may be the crown jewel of my preseason projected team. Myles Garrett single-handedly carried the Browns defense as far as he could which made him the DPOY favorite for most of the season. However, Bosa the Younger leads the league in sacks and is 3rd in TFL and is the de facto leader of the best defense in the league. While only one of them can snag the DPOY, I’d expect to see both receive the honor of being on this team.

IDL: Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams; Emmanuel Ogbah, Miami

Aaron Donald has taken a step back from being impossibly dominant to merely incredibly good. Will that still be enough to be recognized among the best the NFL has to offer? I suspect it will be. Ogbah struggled to find a rhythm between the interior and edge for Miami and won’t come close to garnering any All Pro hype. Chris Jones would be the safe bet to share the spotlight with Donald.

LB: Micah Parson; Dallas, Roquan Smith, Chicago (Baltimore); DeMario Davis, New Orleans

To begin, I’d like to point out that not only did I correctly predict the Roquan Smith to Baltimore trade, I may have also correctly guessed that he would be an All Pro. Feel free to applaud.

Anyways, I also feel pretty comfortable sticking with my Parsons pick. The NFL seems to be experimenting a bit with the formatting of the defensive All Pro team, and he’s not exclusively an edge rusher, so I’m not entirely sure where to slot him, but I just wanted to be sure he was on here somewhere. The spot I imagined Demario Davis in will probably be occupied by Fred Warner, who has made the middle of the field a no-fly zone for opposing offenses all season long.

CB: AJ Terrell, Atlanta; Jaire Alexander, Green Bay

Jaire Alexander has been solid for the Packers in his return from an injury-shortened 2021, but his selection to the Pro Bowl was already a surprise to most, and an All Pro nod is not likely. Terrell hasn’t lived up to the considerable hype he whipped up after last season and has suffered through notable slumpz in 2022. For my money, he’s still one of the most talented at the position, but he won’t be in any All Pro discussions. The last (and only) rookie corner to make the All Pro first-team was Ronnie Lott in 1981. After over 40 years, I expect the count to reset when the Jets superstar rookie corner Sauce Gardner is elected to the team next to Philly’s Darius Slay.

S: Micah Hyde, Buffalo; Jevon Holland, Miami

Hyde’s All Pro campaign was snuffed out before it had any chance of flourishing. Hyde’s season ended when he suffered a neck injury in Week 2. Ask anybody who knows anything if Jevon Holland is an elite safety and you will be met with an emphatic “yes,” but his snubbing from the Pro Bowl doesn’t reflect favorably on his All Pro odds. Talanoa Hufanga has been a stathead favorite all season, and with the Niners defense being as good as it has, he might grab a spot. Quandre Diggs essentially keeping the Seahawks season alive on national TV last weekend with an OT pick might just be the boost he needs to grab an All Pro nod.