This early in the season, it’s easy for a team to have a misleading record. Did a bad team get a fluky win or two? Perhaps a great team lost some close games to some of the best the NFL has to offer? It can be hard to tell, so I looked at a dozen teams to decide whether they are better, worse, or just as could as their record would imply.
ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2): JUST RIGHT, BUT MORE FUN
The 2021 Falcons and the 2022 Falcons could end up being mirror images of one another. The 2021 version were a truly awful team that managed to somehow win 7 games and remain in playoff contention far later than they ever should have. The 2022 Falcons are better, but have begun a trend of losing close games to better teams (see their 27-31 loss to the Rams or their fluky 26-27 loss to the Saints). They aren’t playoff material, but they could win some fun games.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1): OFFENSE IS BETTER, DEFENSE IS WORSE
Ahh, the Baltimore Ravens, a franchise that has definitely always been known as an offense-first team. But in all seriousness, another historically great start to the season for Lamar Jackson has put the league (and whoever is responsible for the Ravens salary cap next season) on notice. A secondary that has allowed nearly 60 more yards through the air per game than almost any other squad could sink them, but that game against Miami is throwing the numbers out of whack and should turn out to be an outlier.
CHICAGO BEARS (2-1): WORSE, BUT IT’LL BE HARD TO PROVE
I hate to get on a team because they’ve played an easy schedule (nothing they can do about that, right?), but a slew of pretty easy games should keep the Bears record looking better than their play for quite some time. The passing offense is historically stale (Justin Fields has 30 less passing attempts this season than Cooper Rush) and you can run on them at a pace of nearly five yards per carry. However, upcoming tilts against such uninspiring teams as the Giants, Commanders, and Patriots could keep Chicago several games above .500 heading into November.
DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1): SOMEHOW, MAYBE, JUST RIGHT
I was certainly among the doomsayers regarding the Cowboys after Dak’s broken hand against Tampa Bay, but Cooper Rush has filled in well. They’re 2-0 with the backup under center, and while Dallas is hardly lighting the league on fire, the offense is performing about as cleanly as one could hope. In their Monday Night victory over the Giants, Rush was not pressured on any of his dropbacks, had a poor throw percentage of 0 (according to Pro Football Reference), and has yet to throw a pick. If offense stays at this level of “alright”, the defense is more than capable of keeping Dallas in the hunt until Prescott returns.
DETROIT LIONS (1-2): SEE BALTIMORE
The Lions offense is awesome. The offensive line is a mauling wall of dudes that has allowed Detroit to become the most efficient running unit in football (they are averaging nearly 6 yards per rush) and keeps Jared Goff comfortable, which gives him plenty of time to feed his weapons downfield. That defense, though, will continue to hold them back. Jeff Okudah’s growth will be key to the entire defense’s continued improvement.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-1): JUST RIGHT, UNLESS THE OFFENSE IMPROVES
This is the kind of Packers that we expected coming into the year. The offense is undergoing some serious renovations, and in the meantime, the defense has to carry more than their fair share of the weight. In spite of being subject to the Justin Jefferson Show Week One, Green Bay has only allowed 15 points per game, among the very best in the league. If the offensive line returns to its full form and Aaron Rodgers gains some more trust in his young receivers, the Packers can become a frightening team. In the meantime, however, I struggle to see them as much more than a solidly above average squad.
HOUSTON TEXANS (0-2-1): WORSE
The Texans very well may be the worst team in the league. The enthusiasm surrounding Davis Mills after last year is drying up after a pedestrian start to the season, and the defense has been utterly ravaged on the ground to the pace of over 200 yards per game. Tying the Colts Week One was a solid start, but a losing back to back contests against some of the most dysfunctional offenses in pro football spells doom for Houston.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (0-3): BETTER, BUT IT’S TOO LATE ANYWAYS
The Raiders are all alone with the worst record in the NFL, but they aren’t the worst team. Not even close. Unfortunately for them, it almost certainly doesn’t matter. Starting your season 0-3 almost always means you are bound to miss the playoffs, with the 2018 Texans being the lone exception to the rule in the last twenty years. They have the pieces to be a Wild Card contender, but with the amount of good teams in the AFC, their chances of advancing to the postseason are non-existent outside of a bizarre series of events.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-1): JUST RIGHT (KIRK COUSINS ADVISORY)
The Vikings defense is just alright by my estimations, but that offense ought to keep the team upright. Until Minnesota completely acclimates to their new offense it’ll continue to perform inconsistently, but with the kind of players they have, it will eventually impress. My concern, of course, is Kirk Cousins. His numbers will certainly sparkle, but unless he can shake his practice of occasionally sputtering for stretches, the Vikings are always in danger of losing games they ought to win.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2): JUST RIGHT
The Patriots have been prophesied to fall to mediocrity for years now, even while Tom Brady was there, but the time may have finally arrived. The offense is utterly moribund, and the defense is vulnerable on the ground and through the air. What might just keep them competitive despite this uninspiring roster is the Ol’ Wizard of Foxborough himself, Bill Belichick. He might be able to scheme them to another handful or so of wins, but you can only do so much from the sidelines. The apparently serious injury to Mac Jones’ ankle certainly doesn’t help matters. If the Patriots fail to make the postseason, it’ll be the first time they’ve ended their season early twice in three years since 2002.
NEW YORK GIANTS (2-1): WORSE
It’s happening again. Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney are both sidelined with injuries and aren’t practicing. Sterling Shepard suffered one of the most bizarre knee injuries you’ll ever see, and his season is almost certainly over as a result. Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are in the doghouse. Yet again, the Giants offense is crumbling before our eyes. Daniel Jones has absolutely no chance with such picked-over receivers and a line that has allowed a pressure on 40% (!!) of dropbacks this season. How good is the defense? I don’t know. It doesn’t matter.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-0): JUST RIGHT BECAUSE JALEN HURTS IS AWESOME
The Eagles being really good hasn’t been much of a surprise, but there was some trepidation around Jalen Hurts. He had certainly improved over the trial run he had his rookie season, but would he be good enough to keep an ultra-talented Eagles roster in the running? The answer is a resounding yes.
Adam's NFL Blog 